Trump’s On The Ballot And He’s Losing

Three global elections are primed to deliver resounding rebukes to Donald Trump on the world stage

May 04, 2025

Across May 2025 elections in Canada and Australia, conservative leaders Pierre Poilievre and Peter Dutton—both openly aligned with Donald Trump—were emphatically rejected by voters who perceived MAGA-style populism as a threat to national cohesion and stability. Poilievre lost his longstanding Carleton seat despite months of polling leads, while Dutton was unseated in Dickson amid a Labor landslide. In both cases, local analysts pointed to Trump-inspired rhetoric—tariffs, culture wars, anti-media stances—as a decisive liability. Concurrently in Rome, Trump’s flippant “I’d like to be pope” quip and AI-generated “Trump as Pope” image provoked sharp rebukes from Cardinal Timothy Dolan and other church leaders, fueling resentment at perceived external meddling. The College of Cardinals—80 percent of whom were appointed by Pope Francis—and the conclave’s two-thirds supermajority rule create structural barriers to any hard-right papal swing, and cardinals may well cast their ballots as an anti-Trump message, mirroring the verdict delivered by Canadian and Australian electorates.

Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has sought to export his brand of populism overseas, lending public support to like-minded figures and glibly musing about personal elevation—even joking that he’d like to be elected Pope. Yet in May 2025, voters in two Anglosphere closest allies—Canada and Australia—delivered resounding defeats to conservative leaders who adopted MAGA-style rhetoric, while in the Vatican, Trump’s digital stunts have drawn rebuke rather than applause. This commentary examines three case studies—Poilievre’s Conservative Party in Ottawa, Dutton’s Liberal–National Coalition in Canberra, and the upcoming papal conclave in Rome—to trace the limits of Trumpism on the global stage and consider whether cardinals might send their own “no Trump” signal in electing Pope Francis’s successor.

The “Trump Effect” in Canada

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party, entered the April 28 election riding high in the polls after months of invoking Trumpian themes—threatening retaliatory tariffs, invoking border security fears, and railing against “elites” in media and academia. His campaign repeatedly echoed Trump’s playbook: painting opponents as advocates of “open borders” and promising economic nationalism that would “make Canada great again.”

In response, Liberal leader Mark Carney—former Bank of Canada governor turned prime minister—framed the election as a referendum on Trump’s agenda, warning that Poilievre’s policies threatened Canadian sovereignty and traditions of compromise. On election night, Liberals secured a solid plurality (falling just short of an outright majority) and swept key battleground ridings; Poilievre himself lost his Carleton seat, ending (probably temporarily) his two-decade parliamentary tenure. Observers noted that fear of Trump-style disruption drove strategic voting among centrists and progressives, consolidating support for Liberals even in Conservative strongholds.

Analysts attribute Poilievre’s collapse to a voter backlash against external influence: Canadian polls showed that a majority viewed Trump unfavorably and cited his trade threats—steel and aluminum tariffs imposed in 2018—as a lingering grievance. David Goodwin of Vox wrote that Canadians were “uniquely horrified by Trump” and repulsed by a Conservative Party that resembled the U.S. GOP, giving Liberals an opening even in ridings long held by Conservatives. The verdict: importing MAGA’s confrontational style proved a liability in a polity that prizes cautious incrementalism and pluralist consensus.

The “Trump Effect” in Australia

In Canberra, opposition leader Peter Dutton likewise leaned into Trump-style messaging, with some Coalition candidates adopting the “Make Australia Great Again” motif, attacking the media as “fake news,” and stoking culture-war fears around “woke” curricula and free speech. Trump’s 2018 tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum became campaign fodder: Dutton lamented U.S. “economic bullying” and vowed to retaliate, even as voters questioned his readiness to govern .

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese countered by framing the contest as a choice between responsible governance and “chaos,” invoking Australia’s relatively low COVID-19 death toll and stable economy under Labor. Post-election surveys found nearly half of voters considered Trump’s policies or personality a major concern when casting their ballots, a factor Albanese’s campaign leveraged in both TV ads and town-hall events .

On May 3, Labor recorded a decisive victory—gaining seats in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland—and Dutton lost his own Dickson seat, a shock defeat for a leader since 2001. Bloomberg observed that “for the second time in a week, voters in a prominent U.S. ally angered by President Donald Trump punished conservatives.” The result underscored the limited portability of MAGA politics: while effective for energizing the base in the United States, its aggressive populism and zero-sum framing alienated mainstream Australians.

MAGA at the Conclave

In Rome, Trump’s off-hand remark, “I’d like to be pope” quickly circulated alongside an AI-generated image of him in papal robes, shared on his Truth Social platform and later by the White House. That image sparked immediate backlash: Cardinal Timothy Dolan, often considered the most Trump-sympathetic member of the hierarchy, called it “god-awful” and “brutta figura,” while the New York State Catholic Conference decried the mockery of a solemn process. Clergy across the spectrum condemned it as an affront. Beyond memes, MAGA-aligned Catholic groups, ranging from “MAGA Catholics” on the former Twitter to conservative think tanks like the Napa Institute, are mobilizing to influence the conclave, advocating for a pontiff who will steer U.S. Catholics to vote Republican. Despite these efforts, structural safeguards weigh heavily against radical change. Roughly 80 percent of the 135 cardinal-electors were appointed by Francis, a preponderance that favors continuity. Moreover, the two-thirds supermajority rule to elect a pope demands broad consensus, effectively sidelining fringe candidacies.

The structure of the Conclave shelters it from populist impulses. The papal conclave is a highly secretive and insulated event. Cardinal electors are sequestered within Vatican City, residing at the Domus Sanctae Marthae, with all forms of external communication, such as cellphones and the internet, strictly prohibited. This isolation ensures that the cardinals are free from external influences, allowing them to focus solely on the spiritual and administrative needs of the Church. The conclave operates under stringent secrecy, with cardinals taking oaths to maintain confidentiality about the proceedings. This environment is designed to foster deep reflection and prayerful consideration, emphasizing the gravity of selecting a new pope. The primary concerns occupying the cardinals' attention are deeply rooted in the internal dynamics of the Church, issues that are intrinsic to the Church's mission and governance. The College of Cardinals is a small, elite body of 135. Their selection is based on ecclesiastical service and theological acumen. This structure positions them far from the dynamics of mass electorates and populist movements. Given their roles and responsibilities, cardinals are more attuned to theological, pastoral, and administrative matters than to transient political trends. Their deliberations are guided by considerations of spiritual leadership and the global needs of the Catholic Church.

Cardinals’ public rebukes and Francis’s bridge-building legacy suggest a collective impulse to affirm the Church’s autonomy more than make any statement about Trump. Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re’s funeral homily invoked Francis’s injunction to “build bridges, not walls”—a pointed contrast to Trump’s isolationism as he attended the service . Seen alongside Poilievre’s and Dutton’s defeats, cardinals may view a vote for a moderate reformer as a parallel stand against external meddling, effectively rebuking Trump from the Sistine Chapel.

May 2025’s electoral verdicts in Canada and Australia, and the Vatican’s fractious pre-conclave atmosphere, illustrate the limits of exporting Trumpist populism. Where Poilievre’s casuistic anger and Dutton’s culture wars faltered, local electorates chose stability over spectacle. In Rome, cardinals face a similar choice: whether to indulge political posturing or to safeguard centuries-old traditions through a unifying, consensus-driven papal election. If history is any guide, MAGA’s global ambitions will continue to wither against local contexts—and in the Sistine Chapel, the white smoke may well signal not a MAGA pope, but an emphatic nōlumus to outside interference.

References:

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