Bolsonaro vs. the 1988 Regime
It is effectively the same question as in 2018: will the post-dictatorship political system survive, and what would take its place if it falls?
Latin America watchers have been looking forward to October’s Brazilian presidential election since Jair Bolsonaro won the 2018 election. In addition to being entertaining (in the same way that we find reality shows entertaining, his election raised significant questions about the democratic system Brazil put in place after the end of the military dictatorship in 1985.
Bolsonaro more or less lived up (or down) to expectations after he took office. He spouted ill-considered and ridiculous rhetoric, insulted opponents, especially women and minorities, threatened to employ the military to ensure he won another term, and relentlessly attacked Brazil’s democratic institutions, including the courts and the election authorities. Yet the system has held during his four-year term. Congress broadly supported Bolsonaro’s agenda, but not without question, and he met resistance there, from state governments, and from the courts. Bolsonaro owed part of his 2018 victory to the imprisonment of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, president from 2003-2010 who would have been on the ballot against him. In March 2020, Lula’s conviction for bribery and corruption was overturned, and he was freed from jail and had his political rights restored. Lula once again leads the Workers’ Party (PT) and is standing for his old office.
Lula currently leads Bolsonaro by a double-digit margin, according to reputable polls. There are nine other candidates running, none of which poll in the double digits, meaning that this is essentially a two-candidate race. The only question at this point is whether Lula will win an outright majority on the October 3 first ballot and avoid a direct runoff against Bolsonaro on October 30.
As the first round of voting approaches, some general observations on what the process tells us about the current state of the Brazilian regime:
Bolsonaro
Bolsonaro’s behavior remains the main focus of the campaign. His campaign style and rhetoric echoes that of Donald Trump, and there is serious concern of how he would behave if he loses. He has threatened to invalidate the election if he fails to win, and says that he will order the Brazilian military to attack the Superior Electoral Tribunal to keep it from counting the votes. He has insisted that Brazil’s electronic voting machines, used for more than twenty years and exported to other South American countries, are rigged and has called for the use of paper ballots. On September 7, the bicentennial of Brazilian independence, Bolsonaro staged a large military parade in front of the Supreme Court and the SuperiorElectoral Tribunal in order to intimidate them. He then gave what can only be called a weird speech in front of a horrified guest of honor (the Portuguese president) in which he invoked his genitalia as a metaphor for his leadership. He has deliberately created the impression that an election loss will trigger a military coup before his successor can assume office on January 1.
Lula
Bolsonaro’s antics mean that not enough attention is being paid to Lula’s potential return to the presidency. Lula left the office reluctantly in 2011, only departing because he was term-limited. His support from his Workers' Party successor, Dilma Rousseff, was qualified, and he clearly viewed her as a placeholder until he was able to run again. He nearly ran against Rousseff in 2014, when she was reelected. The Workers’ Party is Lula’s creation and Lula’s vehicle. It has no other competitive candidates to field on a national stage. In addition to reclaiming a job that he has considered his for two decades, Lula also had the incentive to vindicate his corruption conviction.
The Fall of the PSDB
The democratic system that replaced the military dictatorship had two dominant parties, the Workers’ Party and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), which still revolves around former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso. The “tucanos” only held the presidency for FHC’s two terms, before losing it to Lula’s PT, but dominated in southeastern Brazil and continued to occupy the center-right position in favor of liberal democracy and a capitalist market. They were at the center of forcing the generals from power, the drafting of Brazil’s current constitution in 1988, and the building of the modern Brazilian political economy under FHC. The party has withered away, and this year it is not presenting a presidential candidate. The closest figure it has to a star, former São Paulo state governor and twice-failed presidential nominee Geraldo Alckmin, will be Lula’s running mate. The one prospect for a new generation of the party, São Paulo mayor Bruno Covas, died in office of cancer in 2021, aged 41. PT candidate Fernando Haddad, who lost the last presidential election to Bolsonaro after replacing Lula on the ballot, is the favorite to take the São Paulo state governorship away from the tucanos. The effective absorption of the PSDB by the PT means that there is now just one party defending the 1988 constitutional model against a force that wants to undermine it.
Same As It Ever Was
Where are the new young figures in Brazilian politics? Not in the presidential race. The three leading candidates, Bolsonaro, Lula, and Ciro Gomes have been fixtures in Brazilian politics since the late 20th century. Gomes is running for the seventh straight election, and has never advanced to the second round. There are several younger figures with stature similar to Covas, but none have the profile to run for national office. The 1988 regime does not seem able to generate a new generation of leadership.
What is the election even about?
What is the real “ballot question” in this election? It is effectively the same question as in 2018: will the post-dictatorship political system survive, and what would take its place if it falls? The system thrived through Lula’s presidency, and went hand-in-hand with Brazil’s economic miracle, in which improving living standards of the living class were driven by commodity exports, principally agricultural, to China. The Brazilian economy stagnated after the commodities boom ended, and the political system started to sputter. Rousseff did not have Lula’s political skills. She struggled to hold a Congressional coalition together, and corruption overwhelmed her administration, leading to her impeachment in 2015. The Operation Car Wash investigation and its discoveries were the short-term impetus to Bolsonaro’s election, and they continue to sap the Brazilian public’s confidence in national institutions. Bolsonaro continues to evoke nostalgia for what he considers the predictability of life under the dictatorship, and implies that authoritarian rule is the solution to Brazil’s dwindling state capacity. There is, of course, nothing stable about Bolsonaro’s administration or the prospect of his continued rule, especially in defiance of election results. He has no logical plan for a new political system, or for a new constitution, other than his open-ended rule. He is a nihilist, focused on destroying the old rather than building the new. His anti-systemism covers anything he might propose himself.
The 2022 election will not resolve anything about Brazil’s future. It will not move it toward any resolution of the stagnation of its economy and political system. A third Lula administration will cling to failing institutions, and Bolsonaro will lash out at them without any other plan.
References:
https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-62795997
https://brazilian.report/opinion/2018/10/06/brazil-electronic-voting-system/
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/alckmin-e-oficializado-como-vice-na-chapa-de-lula/
https://www.fljs.org/unfulfilled-promise-brazilian-constitution
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/31/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-election-security-agreement.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/world/americas/brazil-election-bolsonaro-coup.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/12/world/americas/brazil-election-bolsonaro-military.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/world/americas/bolsonaro-trump-brazil-election.html
https://www.pbs.org/show/rise-bolsonaros/
https://veja.abril.com.br/politica/lula-deixa-cadeia-apos-580-dias-veja-como-foi/
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/brazils-electronic-voting-system-safe-fraud-and-manipulation